Realized price closing in long-term holder price: Does this signal a possible end of the bear market?

Quick Take

Data analysis firm Glassnode offers a chart that tracks the weekly percentage shift in the Realized Price for different on-chain groups. This tool aids in detecting times when the collective cost basis has either increased or decreased notably within a brief period.

The Realized Price is the accumulated price at which each coin was last used on-chain. The use of Short-Term and Long-Term Holder heuristics allows for the computation of the Realized Price, which can be interpreted as the estimated average purchase price, for each investor group.

Key metrics include:

• The Realized Price, shown in orange, mirrors the average on-chain purchase price for the entire supply of coins.
• Short-Term Holder Realized Price depicted in red, represents the average on-chain purchase price for coins not kept in exchange reserves and that were transacted within the previous 155 days. These coins have the highest chance of being spent on any given day.
• Long-Term Holder Realized Price, shown in blue, demonstrates the average on-chain purchase price for coins not kept in exchange reserves and not moved within the last 155 days. These coins are least likely to be spent on any given day.

CryptoSlate recently noted that the Realized Price is now within a $100 range of the Long-Term Holder’s Realized Price. Historically, this has been a signal of an ending bear market, a pattern witnessed at the conclusion of each bear market so far.

CryptoSlate had previously examined a comparable situation where the Short-Term Holder Realized Price surpassed both the Realized Price and the Long-Term Holder Realized Price, an event that took place back in March.

Currently, the Realized Price is $20,425, while the Long-Term Holder Realized Price is at $20,557.

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