Bitcoin ETF approval odds increase to 75% following Grayscale’s court victory: Bloomberg analysts

Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart said the chances of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a Bitcoin (BTC) spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) this year have risen to 75% in the wake of Grayscale’s recent victory against the financial regulator.

This represents a 10% jump from the previous 65% the analysts had pegged the chances of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval. Balchunas noted that while they had expected Grayscale to win its case against the SEC, they did not anticipate that the firm would get a ruling that “left SEC with ‘very little wiggle room.’”

The analysts further highlighted the image crisis the loss had generated for the SEC. Balchunas said:

“Beyond the legal loss, there is also the PR loss (which matters because it sets narratives, changes minds). And this got covered far and wide in mainstream media… We think the legal and PR loss will combine to make denial politically untenable.”

Yesterday, Grayscale got a landmark ruling that overturned the SEC’s reluctance to approve its conversion of its Bitcoin Trust into an ETF. The Court ruled that the financial regulator acted arbitrarily and capriciously when it denied the firm’s application and ordered a review of the application.

Following the news, Bitcoin price and the broader crypto market rallied after a few weeks of constrained volatility. However, the rally appears to have cooled, with BTC  down 2.9% in the last 24 hours to around $27,000, according to CryptoSlate’s data.

SEC might delay pending applications

Meanwhile, Bloomberg experts believe that the SEC could further delay applications before it as it might be considering the next steps after the ruling. 

Seyfarrt said:

“We’re expecting delay orders this week on a bunch of the applications. We see approvals as highly unlikely so soon after the court decision.”

The analyst further predicted that even if the SEC denies all applications, Hashdex’s application for spot Bitcoin exposure in DeFi might be more difficult to reject due to its unique and novel approach.

Other experts speculated that the win could be bad for Grayscale even if it is good for other firms applying for a Bitcoin ETF. Bloomberg litigation analyst Elliot Stein noted that if the SEC wants to be vindictive, it could approve other applications and appeal the recent decision favoring Grayscale.

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