Expected decline in penultimate Bitcoin difficulty adjustment before the halving

Quick Take

The highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event is now less than 25 days away, scheduled for April 20. With only two difficulty adjustments remaining until the halving, the first adjustment is expected to be a slight negative of -1%, according to Newhedge, around 9 am GMT on March 28. The last adjustment before the halving will occur around April 11, just nine days before the event.

CryptoSlate’s analysis suggests a potential hash rate correction immediately following the halving, which could last for approximately a month, around two difficulty adjustments. Historical data surrounding Bitcoin’s halvings, as indicated by Glassnode’s vertical black line, is instructive in bolstering the prediction of a roughly one-month correction period.

Two consecutive negative difficulty adjustments occurred during the 2012 and 2020 halvings and one in the 2016 halving. Based on these precedents, it is reasonable to anticipate at least one to two negative difficulty adjustments following the next halving event.

Looking towards the long-term horizon and up to the end of 2024, we anticipate a significant increase in the Bitcoin network’s hash rate, projected to result in greater difficulty levels.

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