Historical trend: market sells on product launches, not on approvals

Quick Take

The anticipation of a Bitcoin ETF approval has triggered discussion and speculation around potential price movements, especially considering past events where there was a ‘sell the news’ effect following the actual launch. A distinct pattern can be seen from previous significant events tied to Bitcoin, such as futures and other exchange-traded products, where the price increase occurred during the approval phase, followed by a sell-off upon launch.

For instance, Bitcoin CME futures, approved on Dec. 1, 2017, saw the Bitcoin price peak on Dec. 18, just a week after the launch on Dec. 11. Similarly, the Coinbase IPO, approved on April 1, started trading on April 12, and Bitcoin’s value fell dramatically shortly after. Lastly, the Bitcoin Futures ETF BITO, approved on Oct. 15, 2021, dealt with a similar fate; Bitcoin’s price rose from $56,000 to $62,000 following the approval news and hit $64,000 on the day of the launch but then fell 10% two days after the launch, on Oct. 19. Bitcoin hit its all-time high 25 days later at $69,000, which it has never revisited since.

For these events, approval news created market optimism, which faded after the product or service launch. As history suggests, market actors may want to cautiously approach a potential Bitcoin ETF approval, considering the possible ‘sell the news’ event.

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