US factory costs spike, threatening Bitcoin’s rally above $85,000

US manufacturers reported more widespread input-price increases in September, raising a potential financing risk for Bitcoin if investors respond by expecting higher interest rates ahead of Friday’s jobs report.

The Institute for Supply Management’s Oct. 1 release put its manufacturing prices index at 77.9, up 6.8 points from August’s 71.1. The manufacturing PMI registered 54.5, new orders 55.3 and employment 52.7.

For Bitcoin, that combination matters because resilient activity and widening cost pressures could complicate the case for lower interest rates.

The prices gauge measures how widely monthly increases are reported, and its 77.9 reading is not a 77.9% inflation rate. Higher input prices were reported by 58.6% of respondents, compared with 46.2% in August. The diffusion-index method counts higher responses plus half of unchanged responses.

The potential pressure runs through rates

The policy backdrop already includes a completed increase by the Federal Open Market Committee, which raised its target range by a quarter percentage point to 3.75% to 4% on Sept. 16.

In Sept. 29 remarks, New York Fed President John Williams said another upward adjustment might be appropriate late this year if the economy broadly followed his forecast. That was his conditional outlook, and he also said there was no evidence yet of the identified price shocks spilling into broader, more persistent inflation.

September’s factory survey adds evidence about input costs to that policy debate, and the Fed’s transmission framework explains that policy changes affect short-term borrowing costs and Treasury bill returns. Meanwhile, expectations of future policy influence longer-term rates and financial conditions.

Applied to Bitcoin, the potential pressure splits into more expensive borrowing, which could make financed risk-taking less attractive, and higher returns on interest-bearing dollar assets, which could also raise the return investors demand to hold Bitcoin.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics schedules September’s Employment Situation for Oct. 2, and the ISM’s manufacturing employment reading cannot substitute for that national report.

Bitcoin’s implications depend on how investors interpret the combined data. If the jobs report strengthens expectations of higher rates, financing and competing dollar returns could become a firmer obstacle. If front-end Treasury yields or expected policy rates fall, that would weaken the proposed transmission.

A February 2023 New York Fed staff study found no systematic Bitcoin response to monetary and macroeconomic news in its historical intraday sample. The practical test is therefore whether rate expectations move and Bitcoin responds, rather than assuming a factory-cost increase guarantees a selloff.

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